The rise of the hottest paper price triggered a ch

2022-07-29
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The rise of paper price triggers a chain reaction in the industry chain. Your express is also on the way to rise in price. Release date: Source: China Economic Weekly editor: Yu Jia Views: 3262 copyright and disclaimer. Core tip: with the rise of paper price, the share price of listed paper companies also rises. Take Yueyang forest paper as an example. From August 8 to 21, 2017, the price per share rose from 7.16 yuan to 8.81 yuan in 13 days, and the highest price per share rose to 9.55 yuan on October 16. As of November 1, its share price was still around 8.3 yuan. Some analysts said that with the acceleration of the supply side reform of papermaking and the gradual closure of papermaking enterprises with high pollution, the industry concentration has been improved, leading enterprises have gained more market share, and the prosperity of the papermaking sector is expected to continue

[China Packaging News] "the price of pulp board required for toilet paper, napkin and toilet paper produced by our company from 2012 to 2014 keeps rising, which has not been increased before, but like the recent increase of 200 yuan per day, I have never encountered it since I was responsible for purchasing." Ms. Wu, who is in charge of purchasing business in a paper company in Beijing, told me

according to the statistics of China's paper industry, the prices of various paper products, including coated paper, white paperboard, double offset paper, and corrugated paper and white paperboard for making express cartons, have started to rise since the end of 2016. In June this year, the prices of coated paper, double offset paper and white cardboard once reached 6724 yuan/ton, 7002 yuan/ton and 6991 yuan/ton. Corrugated paper with waste paper as the main raw material was once reduced to 3715 yuan/ton in April this year, but then rebounded rapidly. The average price reached 4564 yuan/ton in late September, and did not stop rising after the national day and Mid Autumn Festival. The average price reached 5725 yuan in mid October

with the rise of paper prices, the share prices of listed paper companies also rose. Take Yueyang forest paper as an example. From August 8 to 21, 2017, the price per share rose from 7.16 yuan to 8.81 yuan in 13 days, and the highest price per share rose to 9.55 yuan on October 16. As of November 1, its share price was still around 8.3 yuan. Some analysts said that with the acceleration of the supply side reform of papermaking and the gradual closure of papermaking enterprises with high pollution, the industry concentration has been improved, leading enterprises have gained more market share, and the prosperity of the papermaking sector is expected to continue

the rise of paper price affects e-commerce profits.

the rise of paper price is the earliest and deepest perception of the retail industry

Ms. Wu's company does not produce corrugated paper, but because most of the sales targets are large-scale units such as hotels, hospitals and schools, the goods are of high quality, and corrugated boxes need to be purchased as shipping packaging, and three or even five layers of thickened corrugated boxes are required. "What our company usually needs is corrugated boxes with an expansion area of about 2 square meters. From 2.5 to 2.6 yuan each in 2016, it has now risen to 5.3 to 5.4 yuan each." Ms. Wu said

a large number of small and medium-sized Taobao shopkeepers recently pressed the experimental machine with great strength when loading. Mr. Liu, the owner of Taobao, who operates medical devices, told China Economic Weekly that due to the high customer unit price and bill price of his store, the commonly used No. 10 and No. 11 boxes during shipment increased by a few cents. The problem is not too big, but it is not easy to be a colleague of daily necessities. "Take the clothes hangers or soap boxes in daily necessities as an example. Many stores pay 9.9 yuan for postal service, so their profits are particularly meager. After the price of express cartons rises, they have almost no money to make." For these Taobao merchants, they will face a dilemma - if they receive a large number of orders during the "double 11", they will have to stock up enough cartons for shipment first, which will cause great cost pressure in the short term; If we don't purchase a large number of cartons now, we can only face the "double 11" coming. The price of cartons continues to rise, and even because the supply of cartons exceeds the demand, we can't deliver them

compared with small businesses settled on the platform, large retailers are not affected by the rise in paper prices. An insider told China Economic Weekly that large e-commerce companies generally sign long-term contracts with carton suppliers, and will not increase prices or supply exceeds demand due to short-term market changes

duanyanjian, head of the green packaging project of JD logistics, said in an interview that the partners selected by JD are all large-scale carton packaging manufacturing enterprises. They put forward purchase demands a few months before the "double 11" and the "double Festivals" of the national day and the Mid Autumn Festival, which have a large demand for cartons, giving suppliers sufficient time to reserve base paper. However, duanyanjian also admitted that the number of cartons used during the "double 11" period was indeed much higher than usual. "In practice, JD will use alternative packaging to reduce the proportion of cartons used."

in addition, the express industry, which is closely connected with the retail industry, also responded. The first companies that started to raise prices were Zhongtong and Yunda. On October 11, Zhongtong express announced through its official website that "influenced by many factors, such as the increase of transportation costs, the increase of labor costs and the rise of raw material prices, Zhongtong Express Group has decided to adjust the express price from now on after comprehensive consideration." Subsequently, Yunda express also issued an announcement, using words similar to those of Zhongtong express, but neither company has clearly released the range and scope of price adjustment

whether the general price increase in the industry is just a matter of time, and the express industry has not reached an agreement. A few days later, Yefeng, vice president of Yuantong express, denied the rumors of price increase during the "double 11" period; Jd.com, a self built logistics company, is also "not impressed" by the price rise. Duanyanjian, the head of the green packaging project of jd.com logistics, made it clear that jd.com has not been affected much because the self built logistics has found a set of effective management methods; There is also SF express whose willingness to increase prices is not very obvious. A person in charge disclosed that the price of cartons only accounts for a small part of the total cost of SF express. "It has a certain impact, but it is completely controllable."

the paper industry chain has started a chain reaction

"the price rise of corrugated paper is only the first wave, and then the prices of raw materials of other types of paper products have also risen." Ms. Wu told that the price of pulp board required for manufacturing toilet paper, toilet paper and facial tissue paper continued to rise from August, of which the round axis for manufacturing toilet paper rose from 6300 yuan to 6400 yuan per ton to 8200 yuan per ton, an increase of nearly 30%. "There has been an increase of about 500 yuan in the industry, but it has never increased by 1800 yuan, and it has never increased by 200 yuan every day in a few days." Ms. Wu said

it is reported that large hotels, hospitals, schools and other institutions generally sign long-term contracts with paper products suppliers. In the face of sudden changes in the market, most of the losses can only be borne by the paper companies themselves. Take Ms. Wu's company as an example. Although there are provisions in the signed long-term contract that the price can be increased appropriately when the market changes, the increase shall not exceed 10% or 15% at most, which is not enough to cope with the cost increase of nearly 30%. Once the supply is stopped, it will cause breach of contract, which gives a headache to some small-scale paper mills. "Take the toilet roll paper as an example. At present, our sales price for customers who have renewed or newly signed contracts has increased from 9000 yuan per ton to 10500 yuan per ton, so as to relieve some of the pressure. However, the 1500 yuan can not cover the losses caused by the rising cost."

in addition to household paper, printing plants that deal with paper for a long time also have a hard time. A printing factory located in Yizhuang Development Zone, Daxing District, Beijing recently raised the price of printing business. "There is no way. The printing industry is mainly 'paper' burning money. The processing fee is very low. Once the paper price rises, we will certainly raise the price." Mr. Zhai, a staff member of the printing factory, told us that the common printing paper, such as light coated paper, increased by more than 30% within two months, while the paper procurement accounted for more than 60% of the costs of the printing factory, which suddenly increased the operating pressure of the printing factory

high paper price or boost the research and development of substitutes

why did the paper price rise so much in a short time

according to the analysis of insiders, the government departments have recently begun to vigorously strengthen the control of environmental pollution of paper-making enterprises. The paper industry is facing industrial upgrading and the removal of some backward production capacity. In addition, the recently issued policy prohibits the import of waste paper, resulting in fluctuations in the prices of raw materials and production capacity supply of the paper industry

it is learned that foreign waste paper has been favored by many domestic paper mills for a long time because of its low price and high quality. In August, 2017, the Ministry of environmental protection issued a new version of the imported waste management catalogue (hereinafter referred to as "the catalogue"), in which unsorted waste paper was adjusted from "restricted import" to "prohibited import", and recycled (scrap) paper and paperboard were included in the "prohibited list". After the publication of the catalogue, the price of waste paper recycling began to rise sharply. According to public data, the average price of waste paper delivered to the factory has risen to 2960 yuan/ton in September this year, compared with 1240 yuan/ton in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 139%. Waste paper is the most commonly used raw material for corrugated paper and whiteboard in the retail industry

in addition, as the paper industry began to remove low-end and excess capacity and entered the transformation period of technological upgrading, some polluting paper industry factories were shut down, resulting in a decline in supply, which in turn affected the paper price. Mr. Zhai said that he learned from the upstream that some small-scale paper mills were stopped one after another because the environmental impact assessment did not meet the standard. At present, their printing plants can only take goods from such large suppliers as Chenming Paper and Yueyang Lin paper. "Some small mills tried to 'go underground' to start work secretly. Today, we introduced the use and key operating points of a high-frequency fatigue testing machine to be investigated."

however, some insiders say that if the paper price keeps rising like this, the market acceptance will slowly decrease and the demand will decrease, making it difficult for the paper price to rise. In addition, if the paper price remains high for a long time, it will boost the research and development of alternatives, which can not only restrain the rise of paper price, but also may lead to the emergence of new environmentally friendly materials

"over packaging" can be avoided in this regard

while the paper price rises, some insiders pointed out that the problem of "over packaging" should be solved by taking the opportunity. Caoyuanzheng, chairman of BOC International Research Company, once said that the most important reason for excessive packaging is that there is no standardization. "Express packaging is large and small, and the degree of packaging varies. Only standardization can save materials. The rise in carton prices can promote the development of this aspect."

facing the imminent cost pressure, various businesses have begun to take measures to solve the problem of "excessive packaging"

Mr. Liu, the owner of Taobao, told China Economic Weekly that some peers have been considering changing the packaging method, replacing large cartons with small cartons to save the vacancy rate, or changing corrugated cartons to plastic bags or packaging paper. There are also shopkeepers who can ship without packaging. When customers require packaging, they may not enjoy a discount. The cartons used during shipment should also be those saved when receiving express delivery

although large-scale retail enterprises are not affected by the rise in paper prices, avoiding excessive packaging has been raised to the group strategy level of some companies. Duanyanjian told China Economic Weekly that there are indeed many over packaging problems in the retail industry. For example, in order to prevent damage during handling, an express package is wrapped with tape for many times; In the process of in warehouse packaging, due to the irregular size and volume of commodities, manual packaging will inevitably lead to "large packaging of small commodities" or "small packaging of large commodities", resulting in excessive packaging or carton damage

"JD has been

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